Ireland’s Greenhouse Gas Emissions Projections 2021-2040

EPA (Environmental Protection Agency)
Ireland · 2022

The Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) is the national body with responsibility to develop, prepare and publish projections of greenhouse gas emissions for Ireland. The EPA produces national greenhouse gas emission projections on an annual basis. These projections are compiled in line with EU guidelines to meet EU reporting obligations’ and to inform national policy development.

This report provides an assessment of Ireland’s total projected greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions from 2021 to 2040, using the latest Inventory data for 2020 as the starting point. As the first projected year (2021) has passed, indicator data is used where possible instead of projections. The report provides an assessment of Ireland‘s progress towards achieving its National ambitions under the Climate Action and Low Carbon Development (Amendment) Act 20212 and EU emission reduction targets for 2030 as set out under the Effort Sharing Regulation (ESR)’.

Preparing the EPA projections involves compiling and processing key data sets such as energy projections (projected fuel use), animal numbers and emissions from industry, businesses and homes in Ireland.

The EPA has produced GHG projections using two scenarios or levels of ambition. The two scenarios represent different possible trajectories for Ireland‘s GHG emissions and are explained in more detail in the Explainer in Section 2. The first scenario, With Existing Measures (WEM), forecasts Ireland’s emissions including all national policies and measures implemented by the end of 2020. This is the cut off point for

which the latest national greenhouse gas emission inventory data is available, known as the ’base year‘ for projections. Implemented measures such as those in the National Development Plan (NDP)4 and Climate Action Plan 2019’ are included in this scenario.

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