Formative scenario analysis of the factors influencing the adoption of industrialised construction in countries with high housing demand – the cases of Ethiopia, Kenya, and South Africa

Firehiwot Kedir, Qian Chen, Daniel M. Hall, Bryan T. Adey and Richard Boyd

The use of industrialised construction can help meet the growing housing demand for developing economies in Africa. In order to understand future scenarios for accelerated adoption of industrialised construction, it is necessary to identify the influencing factors. To do so, this paper conducts a formative scenario analysis which is a literature- and expert-based method, focussing on three countries that have high housing demands, i.e. Ethiopia, Kenya, and South Africa. The resulting analysis consists of three parts. The first is the identification of nineteen internal and external influencing factors. These factors range from product performance to policies and regulations. The second is the illustration of the importance of each factor as a function of its relationship with the other factors. The third is the description of three possible scenarios the adoption of industrialised construction may take in the three investigated countries. The findings show that the most important accelerators for the adoption of industrialised construction come from governments’ commitment to invest in future construction and incentivize companies to adopt industrial construction methods and for these companies to produce competitive products. The specific adoption policies to be implemented, however, depend greatly on the specific situation.

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